Would a Vampire be big in Japan? They seems to love them over there, so I would say yes (guess)
Would a Vampire be rich in Japan? The 90's were devastating in term of real return. The next 20 years were bad also. The Safe Withdrawal rate method at either 3%-4% failed in just over 10 years time. In 1990, the Nikkei drop by 40% , it has yet to recover to its pre 1990 returns. Currently 1$ of Nikkei would be worth ,47cent if it had been invested in Nikkei. That's harsh .
The first thing to notice is that between 1985 to the end of 1989, the Nikkei triple in value. The S&P500 also triple in value before the crash of 1930 and 2000. However, the Nikkei never rebounced. More precisely in the next 5 years it drop (3x to 2x). Then drop so more (2x to 1.3x). Stagnate for a while and eventually decline to 0,7x.
It seems that at first sight, this scenario is doom for failure. SWR will most likely leads to ruin. ADD and VPW gets pounded and drop by 92% of earlier withdrawals. Considering the extensive lenght and strenght of the drop this is to be expected.
The classic strategy to reduce risk by going with bonds helps getting less poor. Still it required about 50% drop in withdrawal in both ADD and VPW.
Only the international mix save the investment strategy. But who is to say that it will not happen again on a global size or on any other specific wide segment of the economy.
The ADD strategy provides about 5 years worth of previous income instead of taking the hit. It's not bad all thing considering.
In the end, only the internationnaly well diversified japanese vampire may stayed rich. While in 25 years, Nikkei was able to do 0.45x, the S&P500 did 10x. A more than substantial difference.
samedi 10 mars 2018
jeudi 1 mars 2018
Debunking the Financial Economic Theory for pension.
Debunking the Financial Economic Theory for pension.
I’ve been reading for the past few days in length the
Financial Economic Theory in Pension Plan. Basically they are saying that with
title like “The case against Stock in Public Pension Funds” that equity should
not go into Pension Funds. Their basic idea is investing in Equity does not
reflect Risk Premium and obviously Investor/tax Payer will alter their asset
allocation due to Pension Fund allocation.
Honestly, I’ve never heard of an individual really adjusting
their Asset Allocation given they invest in S&P500 or the Russel 3000. Such
individual must be very determine to look at these multiples companies and
adjust their Asset Allocation based on the company Pension Fund allocation. In
the end, the question remains that even if ABC Pension Plan is fully in Bonds,
and I own ABC, I’m not suddenly feeling like owning more bonds due to my ABC
ownership. In the end, if ABC fails, I do not hold those bonds. I’m not the
primary holder on them. I hold nothing. I agree that there’s a tax advantage of
owning bonds through ABC, but in the end owning bonds through ABC is not the
same guarantee than owning myself the bonds.
According to Financial Economics, a company that wants to
offer 1000$ of pension in 30 years has multiple ways to pay for it. The value
of such pension is say 25,000$ 30 years from now.
Method
|
Money
|
Bonds only
|
60%/40%
|
Equity
|
Rate/Factor
|
0%/1
|
4%/3.2434
|
6.4%/6.4306
|
8%/10.0627
|
Current Cost
|
25,000$
|
7,708$
|
3,888$
|
2,484$
|
Financial Economics says that the company should be indifferent
in paying 2,484$, 3,888$, 7,708$ or 25,000$ since it can raises debt to pay for
their employees’ pension. I’ve got a hard time believing this. The fact is that
for a DB plan, the company is on the hook to provide the 1,000$. 1,000$ of
pension from ABC should be equal value which have say bonds only portfolio than
XYZ who go for a 60%/40%. Any difference (3,820$) is the risk premium that XYZ
is paying. From Financial Economics, any investor should be indifferent and
must be inform (through financial statement) that the cost of both ABC and XYZ 1,000$
pension is 7,708$. That is true, since accounting use the interest of Bonds of equivalent
terms to value any cash flow.
Personally, (preference driven) I would like to pay 2,484$
now and get 1,000$ in 30 years. Even if I get the same 1,000$ in 30 years, I do
not understand why I should pay an extra 1,400$ to get the same pension. Let
alone pay 5,000$ more or out of my mind 23,000$ more .I guess I don’t feel the
extra risk premium I’m not paying. If I did pay it, nobody claimed it from me. Financial
Economics says that my future self will pay for it. However, volatility on a 30
years term equity portfolio is very similar to a bonds portfolio for 30 years
term. From the past, I see that my future self will have the same 1,000$
pension. I’m never going to pay for that 23,000$ extra risk premium. If the
value of it is lower and I have to pay extra, the same can be said for bonds or
60/40%. If the fund have the same volatility, it’s no mystery. The fund has
equal chance to go up or down than his counterpart. The name of the rose do not
matter.
One of my issue with Financial Economics is that bonds are
not risk free. Even treasury bonds where government can always raise tax, print
new bonds or print money to pay back for it is not risk free. If it print
money, it create inflation. This in turn hurt the real returns of the bonds. If
it prints new bonds, they may be at a higher interest rate, this reduce the
current value of my bonds. In fact even treasury bonds are volatile. Year to
year volatility is 4.4%. Somehow, 4.4% for bonds is risk free. If it raise tax,
well then, I’m happy. My bonds are paid. If Economy decline as Keynesian theory
says, then relative value vs equity increase.
What is the risk of Equity? Most recognize volatility of value
as the main risk. On a year to year basis, S&P500 fluctuates by about 18%
volatility (standard deviation) Does it fluctuates depending on its terms?
Equity have only one term. Until sold, ABC repurchase them or ABC goes bankrupt.
If I own S&P500 or Russel 2000, all of them need to purchase my share or
all of them need to go bankrupt at the same time in order to terminate. Else, I
need to sell my share to end the term of the share. If I wait say 10 years, volatility
of S&P500 reduces to 5%. Over 30 years, it’s about 1.6%. Is it ever risk
free? Definitely not by itself. Year by year the volatility stay the same. However,
after 10 years, the volatility aka risk is about the same than year to year
bonds. I would argue that a ten years equity (where you sell the thing after 10
years is the same as owning a bonds over one year).
Fixed payment are great. This is what provides bonds. If I
need to have fixed payment, bonds are great. However, say that you had to pay
1,000$ and had say 100,000$ and it fluctuates a lot (equity). Even if it goes
to 50,000$ next year, you still can pay 1,000$. In fact the Safe Withdrawal
rate says that in the past, you could have only 25,000$ in a 60/40% portfolio
and been able to withstand 30 years of withdrawal without any ruin and even
increase the 1,000$ by an average of 3% inflation. In other term, it was risk
free. Then again, if you had gone and have 25,000$ in bonds of 4% and still be
ok… except you don’t get the 3% inflation and don’t pass go. Using greater
equity ratio, you need more funds, but can enjoy a greater than inflation
increase. In the end bonds are not the only way to provide fixed payment. A
bunch load of cash or equity can provide the same service.
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